‘Tough Guy’ Style Popular in NJ, Could Hamper Christie in 2016

Written by Devin McGinley

New Jersey’s “tough guy” governor may find his combative style less welcome if he decides to run for president in 2016, according to a poll released Tuesday.

A majority of New Jersey voters expect that Gov. Chris Christie won't finish the second term in office to which they elected him—by an historic landslide—last week, according to the Rutgers-Eagleton poll.

Respondents to the statewide survey conducted the week before Election Day also said that his tough political approach they had seen as effective in Trenton may not appeal to voters on the national stage.

According to the poll, 59 percent of the state’s voters expected that Christie will make a bid for the White House in 2016, and 45 percent expected he would resign as governor in order to run.

Christie, of course, has remained mum about his presidential ambitions.

When asked about Christie’s “tough talking,” 58 percent of voters, and 78 percent of his supporters, said that it helps “get things done” in Trenton. But 46 percent, including 38 percent of Christie voters, said the "tough-guy attitude" would not have the same appeal in a presidential race.

David Redlawsk, the director of the poll and a political science professor at Rutgers who previously spent a decade observing Iowa politics, said if Christie makes a run for president, he would have to balance two aspects of his political approach to survive the up close and personal Iowa caucuses.

“One is that he is very good with small groups,” he said. “He’s very personal, very good at making connections. That could do very well in a place that places a premium on retail politics like Iowa.”

But in those small group situations, Christie would likely have to tone down the tough talk that most recently led to a high profile campaign trail confrontation with a public school teacher.

In Iowa, Redlawsk said, “It’s about voters who expect to question and challenge candidates.”

Conversely, the perception that Christie cooperates well with Democrats could present other challenges in a Republican primary fight.

Christie faces a general impression, true or not, that he is not as conservative as some of his potential primary opponents, Redlawsk said.

“The bottom line is he won reelection in New Jersey as a bipartisan guy who can reach across the aisle,” he said. That helps in a general election, “But he’s got to get through the primaries first.”

The conservative National Journal recently outlined some of the ventures to the middle during Christie’s first term and reelection race that could present political challenges in a Republican primary fight, including a perception of flip-flopping on gun control and an early surrender in his fight against gay marriage.

Republican Sen. Rand Paul, a likely presidential candidate, also sniped at Christie a day after his reelection for his appearance during an election season in tourism commercials funded by Sandy recovery aid, repeating an attack leveled by Democratic state Sen. Barbara Buono during her gubernatorial challenge.

If Christie does run, he would likely do so as an establishment candidate, with him expected to expand his national network next year as the chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

And even with his party’s right wing lining up against him, political perceptions may weigh less on his bid for the GOP nod as long as he remains the lone moderate in the race.

“Both [Mitt] Romney and before him [John] McCain benefitted from a split conservative side,” Redlawsk said. “Christie could do fine if the right wing is attacking itself.”